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MACIEL, Marcelo Veloso. Emergence of distributions of ideological positioning: a computational approach. 2018. 87 p. Dissertation (Master of Science) – School of Arts, Sciences and Humanities, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, 2018. Democracies are based on the connection between citizens’ attitudes and policies. In a political arena where agents are boundedly rational, the competition of politicians and parties for the support and vote of the population depends on how the public opinion is distributed. However, explicit models that generate, instead of presupposing, them are still rare. This work generates those distributions through a computational agent-based model of social influence. In it the agents interact in pairs and become more similar to the others in some issue conditional on their ideological positioning, their uncertainty and on how much they trust another agent’s opinion. Through a combination of sensitivity analysis, histograms and time series of the system’s measures and scatterplots, we find that how uncertain the agents are, the number of issues underneath their positioning and how much they’re subject to random attitude change (noise) are important determinants of the shape of the population attitudinal distribution. Our results lead us to empirical questions regarding the model parameters interaction and the plausibility of the distributions generated by it which should be answered by future works.

Emergência de distribuições de posicionamentos ideológicos: uma abordagem computacional