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Aim:   This study aims to quantify longitudinal changes in waist circumference (WC) among adults aged 45-64 years in Germany.   Methods:   Data of 15,444 men and 17,207 women from one nationwide and six regional prospective German cohort studies were analyzed. The sex-specific mean change in WC per year of follow-up was assessed for each study separately. Findings from the cohort-by-cohort analysis were combined by applying meta-analytic methods. Progression to central obesity (WC ≥ 102 cm in men and ≥ 88 cm in women) within a standardized period of 10 years was described for each study.   Results:   The estimated mean change in WC per year of follow-up for all cohorts combined was 0.53 (95% confidence interval 0.29-0.76) cm/year for men and 0.63 (0.48-0.77) cm/year for women, but varied between the included studies. Within 10 years, about 20% of individuals with low WC (<94 cm in men; <80 cm in women) and about 50% of individuals with intermediate WC (94-102 cm in men; 80-88 cm in women) progressed to central obesity.   Conclusion:   The increase in mean WC with aging along with a profound increase of central adiposity is obviously and may have several adverse health effects. Obesity prevention programs should also focus on abdominal obesity.

Changes in Waist Circumference among German Adults over Time - Compiling Results of Seven Prospective Cohort Studies