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Knowledge about labour market size has several uses. From an economic and development perspective, it can be used as a framework to inform policies in human resource planning at microand macrolevels for efficient production of goods and services so as to enhance the wellbeing of people in a society [see Sinz (1984), Lindley (1988), Psacharopoulos (1991), Neugart and Schomann (2002), Reinberg and Markus (2002), Ehrenberg (2003)]. Knowledge of the future size of the labour market is also valuable in employment creation strategies. Widespread concern about economic and development planning in both industrialised and less developed countries has led to increasind in interest and efforts in preparing estimates of economic characteristics of the population. Furthermore, estimates of the economically active population are needed to give an indication of the number and characteristics of the workers that will be available for employment in future years so that appropriate plans and policies can be made (Shryock, Siegel and Associates, 1976). Without adequate information about the magnitudes of the future labour force, it is difficult to assess whether there are sufficient jobs to absorb the future size of the labour force. Thus, knowledge of the magnitudes of the future labour force is essential to planning to reduce potential unemployment and its social consequences. From a demographic perspective, labour market estimates provide insights into labour market effects including ageing of the labour force and the dependency burden due to demographic transition [see Borsch-Supan (2001)]. In market research, the size of the labour market is one of the determinants of market potential and thus knowledge about the future size of the labour market facilitates decision making regarding whether to produce and where to market certain products in the future. Despite needs mentioned above, information about probable future magnitudes of labour market size and characteristics is often lacking.

Magnitudes of South Africa’s labour market, 2002-2020 and social implications