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High fail and dropout rates are the major problems in distance education. Due to a large number of online learners and limited teacher resources, it is essential to accurately identify these potential at-risk students in advance and provide timely aids, which will help to improve the educational outcome. In the online learning environment, students’ online learning behaviors can be recorded easily, with the click data being the most common one. Students’ learning behavior can reflect their learning situation and may differ among different students and periods. This paper proposed a model that uses the short-period activity characteristic and long-term changing pattern to predict the potential at-risk students. The model contains two stages: information extraction and information utilization. The first stage extracts data from the log files and organizes it in a form suitable for the model. In the second stage, according to the different characteristics of students’ short-term and long-term learning behavior, a convolution residual recurrent neural network (CRRNN) model is proposed. The convolutional neural network is used to obtain the representation of the student’s learning behavior in a certain period. Then, the residual recurrent neural network is used to get the behavior changing pattern over the periods. The experimental results indicate that the proposed model has higher performance than the three widely used baseline methods on the OULA dataset and has good practical application value for teaching and management.

Predicting the At-Risk Online Students Based on the Click Data Distribution Characteristics