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This paper proposes a linear mixed model of route speed distributions that separates the variability into an intertraveller component, consistent across days and time intervals for each recurrent traveller, and an intratraveller component representing uncertainty. The intratraveller variability corresponds to travel time uncertainty, while the total variability is typically captured by empirical measurements and used in travel time reliability assessments. The intratraveller and the total variability differ if there are systematic differences in speed between different recurrent travellers. The paper also investigates to what degree vehicles traversing a route during the morning or evening peak over multiple days are recurrent travellers. Using data from Bluetooth and Wifi sensors on 26 routes in Stockholm, Sweden, over a three-month period, we find that the traveller recurrence is higher towards the city in the morning peak and out from the city in the afternoon. Model estimation results show that the relative intratraveller variability is also significantly higher in the commute direction (towards the city in the morning and out from the city in the afternoon) and on routes with high congestion levels. The relations revealed in this paper may be used to estimate the relevant intratraveller variance based on the total variance and readily available route attributes. Without this correction, the costs associated with travel time variability may be overestimated.

Traveller Recurrence and Inter- versus Intratraveller Speed Variability: Analysis with Bluetooth Data