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Purpose   The purpose of this study was to examine the association between baseline serum gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) and incident diabetes mellitus and to explore their dose-response relationship in a cohort of Japanese adults.  Patients and Methods . Data were drawn from the NAGALA (NAfld in the Gifu Area, Longitudinal Analysis) study between 2004 and 2015, including hierarchical information on participants ≥18 years of age without diabetes mellitus, preexisting diabetes mellitus, heavy alcohol drinking, or other liver diseases (e.g., hepatitis B/C). The final analytic sample included 15464 participants, 373 of who were diagnosed as diabetes mellitus with a maximum 13-year follow-up. The risk of incident diabetes mellitus according to baseline serum GGT was estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models and a two-piecewise linear regression model was developed to find out the threshold effect.Results   Being in the highest quintile versus the lowest quintile of GGT levels was associated with an almost twofold increased risk of incident diabetes mellitus (hazard ratio 1.83 (95% CI 1.06, 3.15)), independent of age, gender, smoking status, alcohol intake, BMI, SBP, triglycerides, fatty liver, ALT, AST, and fasting plasma glucose. Further analysis revealed a positive curvilinear association between GGT and incident diabetes mellitus, with a saturation effect predicted at 24 IU/L. When serum GGT level was less than 24 IU/L, the risk of developing diabetes mellitus increased significantly with an increase in serum GGT levels (HR 1.04 (1.02, 1.07),  P =0.0017). Besides, the association was more significant in nonsmoking participants than ex- or current-smokers ( P =0.0017). Besides, the association was more significant in nonsmoking participants than ex- or current-smokers ( P  for interaction = 0.0378).Conclusion   Serum GGT level was a significant predictor of subsequent risk of diabetes mellitus, which increased by 4% for every 1 IU/L increase in GGT when GGT was less than 24 IU/L.

international journal of endocrinology

The Dose-Response Relationship between Gamma-Glutamyl Transferase and Risk of Diabetes Mellitus Using Publicly Available Data: A Longitudinal Study in Japan