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Tibetan Plateau (TP) mesoscale vortex (TPMV) was regarded as one of the most important rain bearing systems in China. Previous studies focused on the mechanisms of the TPMV in the viewpoint of deterministic forecast; however, few studies investigate the predictability of the TPMV using the Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECWMF). This paper investigates the location and the intensity of the larger-scale synoptic systems that influenced the development of the TPMV and its associated heavy rainfall by correlation and composite analysis. The case study on 18 July 2013 shows that stronger Balkhash Lake ridge, weaker Baikal Lake trough, and weaker western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) are favorable to formation of TPMV over the Sichuan basin (SCB); otherwise, weaker Balkhash Lake ridge, stronger Baikal Lake trough, and stronger WPSH result in formation of TPMV to west of the SCB slightly. After the initial time, forecast for next 48 h of the geopotential height over the SCB can be viewed as a precursor of the subsequent time-averaged 90–108 h forecast of TPMV. TPMV had critical contributions to the heavy rainfall over the SCB on 18 July 2013.

Probabilistic Evaluation of Tibetan Plateau Mesoscale Vortex on 18 July 2013