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The pathogenesis and prognosis of glioblastoma (GBM) remain poorly understood. Mutual exclusivity analysis can distinguish driver genes and pathways from passenger ones. The purpose of this study was to identify mutually exclusive gene sets (MEGSs) that have prognostic value and to detect novel driver genes in GBM. The genomic alteration profile and clinical information were derived from The Cancer Genome Atlas, and the MEGSA method was used to identify the MEGS. Next, we performed survival analysis and constructed a risk prediction model for prognostic stratification. Leave-one-out cross-validation and permutation test were used to evaluate its performance. Finally, we identified 21 statistically significant MEGSs. We found that the MEGS in the RB pathway was significantly associated with poor prognosis, after adjusting for age and gender (HR = 1.837, 95% CI: 1.192–2.831). Based on the risk prediction model, 208 (80.9%) and 49 (19.1%) patients were assigned to high- and low-risk groups, respectively (log-rank: p<0.001, adjusted p=0.001). Additionally, we found that SPTA1, a novel gene involved in the MEGS, was mutually exclusive with members of cell cycle, P53, and RB pathways. In conclusion, the MEGS in the RB pathway had considerable clinical value for GBM prognostic stratification. Mutated SPTA1 may be involved in GBM development.

Identifying Mutually Exclusive Gene Sets with Prognostic Value and Novel Potential Driver Genes in Patients with Glioblastoma