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Landslide of loose rock mass at mountain tunnel exit occurs easily, and prediction of landslide position is one of the engineering problems to be solved urgently. Currently, existing and used prediction methods, such as field monitoring measurement, numerical analysis, nonlinear theories, and the geometric method, play a very important role and have their limitations. For example, there is a bigger difference between calculation mode by Wang et al.’s method and actual engineering situation; besides, there exists a relatively big discrepancy between the predicted and true position. Aiming to solve this problem, this article combined theoretical analysis and actual engineering situation to establish an optimal calculation mode. At the same time, this article re-deduced instability criteria based on the stress-transferring theory and examined the factors that influence solutions. The improved method can predict landslide position more accurately because the parameters (β, s, H, α, γ, c, φ, and T) related to the occurrence of landslide are taken into consideration. It is pointed out that landslide possibly occurs in the case of Δ ≥ 0 and Y ≤ 0. In addition, the equations s1 < s < s2 and 0 ≤ s ≤ H/sin α can determine landslide position accurately. The method is applied to two engineering examples, and the calculation results show that the deviations of predictive position from the actual landslide position are only 0.10% and 0.07%, respectively, indicating that prediction results are accurate and reliable. It is suggested that the proposed method is a useful tool in the design of tunnel engineering.

Prediction of Landslide Position of Loose Rock Mass at Mountain Tunnel Exit