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A hybrid method consisting of bow-tie-Bayesian network (BT-BN) analysis and fuzzy theory is proposed in this research, in order to support predictive analysis of settlement risk during shield tunnel excavation. We verified the method by running a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for a tunnel section in the Wuhan metro system. Firstly, we defined the “normal excavation phase” based on the fuzzy statistical test theory. We eliminated the noise records in the tunnel construction log and extracted the occurrence probability of facility failures from the denoised database. We then obtained the occurrence probability of environmental failures, operational errors, and multiple failures via aggregation of weighted expert opinions. The expert opinions were collected in the form of fuzzy numbers, including triangular numbers and trapezoidal numbers. Afterwards, we performed the BT-BN analysis. We mapped the bow-tie analysis to the Bayesian network and built a causal network PSA model consisting of 16 nodes. Causes of the excessive surface settlement and the resulting surface collapse were determined by bow-tie analysis. The key nodes of accidents were determined by introducing three key measures into the Bayesian inference. Finally, we described the safety measures for the key nodes based on the PSA results. These safety measures were capable of reducing the failure occurrence probability (in one year) of excessive surface settlement by 66%, thus lowering the accident probability caused by excessive surface settlement.

Predictive Analysis of Settlement Risk in Tunnel Construction: A Bow-Tie-Bayesian Network Approach