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Operational planning in China is perhaps more important today than ever before owing to the ongoing expansion of urban rail in the country. As urban rail networks increase in size and complexity, new lines added to them significantly alter both their topologies and operational characteristics. Thus, appraisal of alternative lines from the perspective of operation while planning is crucial. In this study, a method to forecast demands for new lines and obviate the effects of their addition, in terms of overcrowding in urban rail networks, was developed based on smart card data from existing networks. Using the card data and forecasted demand, transfer demand and section load can be estimated through the route choice model, and hence the influence of new lines on the operation of the network can be analyzed. The results of application of the proposed method to a case of line extension of a network in Beijing showed that it effectively prevented overcrowding by fewer interchanges on the line extension. Approximately 63% of passengers desiring an interchange on the target line altered their interchange from the station that had acted as bottleneck to the new interchange. Consequently, the headway of the feeding line was reduced from 6 min to 3.5 min. Hence, the capacity mismatch problem no longer occurred.

Planning for Operation: Can Line Extension Planning Mitigate Capacity Mismatch on an Existing Rail Network?