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Bayesian analysis was used to estimate the pig's and herd's true prevalence of enteropathogenic  Yersinia  in serum samples collected from Finnish pig farms. The sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test were also estimated for the commercially available ELISA which is used for antibody detection against enteropathogenic  Yersinia . The Bayesian analysis was performed in two steps; the first step estimated the prior true prevalence of enteropathogenic  Yersinia  with data obtained from a systematic review of the literature. In the second step, data of the apparent prevalence (cross-sectional study data), prior true prevalence (first step), and estimated sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods were used for building the Bayesian model. The true prevalence of  Yersinia  in slaughter-age pigs was 67.5% (95% PI 63.2–70.9). The true prevalence of  Yersinia  in sows was 74.0% (95% PI 57.3–82.4). The estimates of sensitivity and specificity values of the ELISA were 79.5% and 96.9%.

biomed research international

Bayesian Estimation of the True Prevalence and of the Diagnostic Test Sensitivity and Specificity of Enteropathogenic<i>Yersinia</i>in Finnish Pig Serum Samples

Bayesian Estimation of the True Prevalence and of the Diagnostic Test Sensitivity and Specificity of EnteropathogenicYersiniain Finnish Pig Serum Samples