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This paper targets a general popularity prediction problem for event sequence, which has recently gained great attention due to its extensive applications in various domains. Feature driven method and point process method are two basic thinking paradigms to tackle the prediction problem, but both of them suffer from limitations. In this paper, we propose PreNets unifying the two thinking paradigms in an adversarial manner. On one side, feature driven model acts like a 'critic' who aims to discriminate the predicted popularity from the real one based on a set of temporal features from the sequence. On the other side, point process model acts like an 'interpreter' who recognizes the dynamic patterns in sequence to generate a predicted popularity that can fool the 'critic'. Through a Wasserstein learning based two-player game, the training loss of the 'critic' guides the 'interpreter' to better exploit the sequence patterns and enhance prediction, while the 'interpreter' pushes the 'critic' to select effective early features that helps discrimination. This mechanism enables the framework to absorb the advantages of both feature driven and point process methods. Empirical results show that PreNets achieves significant MAPE improvement for both Twitter cascade and Amazon review prediction.

Adversarial Training Model Unifying Feature Driven and Point Process Perspectives for Event Popularity Prediction