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Several previous approaches attempted to predict bursty topics on Twitter. Such approaches have usually reported that the time information (e.g. the topic popularity over time) of hashtag topics contribute the most to the prediction of bursty topics. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to use time features to predict bursty topics on Twitter. We model the popularity of topics as density curves described by the density function of a beta distribution with different parameters. We then propose various approaches to predict/classify the bursty topics by estimating the parameters of topics, using estimators such as Gradient Decent or Likelihood Maximization. In our experiments, we show that the estimated parameters of topics have a positive effect on classifying bursty topics. In particular, our estimators when combined together improve the bursty topic classification by 6.9 in terms of micro F1 compared to a baseline classifier using hashtag content features.

An Effective Approach for Modelling Time Features for Classifying Bursty Topics on Twitter