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Fashion is a multi-billion dollar industry with social and economicimplications worldwide. To gain popularity, brands want to be represented bythe top popular models. As new faces are selected using stringent (and oftencriticized) aesthetic criteria, \emph{a priori} predictions are made difficultby information cascades and other fundamental trend-setting mechanisms.However, the increasing usage of social media within and without the industrymay be affecting this traditional system. We therefore seek to understand theingredients of success of fashion models in the age of Instagram. Combiningdata from a comprehensive online fashion database and the popular mobileimage-sharing platform, we apply a machine learning framework to predict thetenure of a cohort of new faces for the 2015 Spring\,/\,Summer seasonthroughout the subsequent 2015-16 Fall\,/\,Winter season. Our frameworksuccessfully predicts most of the new popular models who appeared in 2015. Inparticular, we find that a strong social media presence may be more importantthan being under contract with a top agency, or than the aesthetic standardssought after by the industry.

Style in the Age of Instagram: Predicting Success within the Fashion Industry using Social Media