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One of the pitfalls in simulation modeling is the modeler's assumption that the computer generated distributions to be used in the simulation run are sacrosanct. In many models subjected to simulation analysis, it is necessary for the modeler to 'create' various statistical distributions as part of the endogenous and/or expogenous data in the model - turn-around time in a time-sharing environment, rainfall distribution in a specific area, run times for student programs at a computer center. Two methods are usually used to develop these distributions. On the one hand, the modeler might have historic data (company records, experimenter observations) and he therefore can create an empircal distribution which he will use in simulating the model. On the other hand, the modeler might have to rely upon previous studies to estimate a possible distribution; for example, he might assume a Poisson distribution for the timing of machine breakdowns but has to make some estimate of λ.

Statistical analysis to evaluate generated distributions in simulation modeling to conserve computer time