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We develop a quantitative framework for understanding the class of wickedproblems that emerge at the intersections of natural, social, and technologicalcomplex systems. Wicked problems reflect our incomplete understanding ofinterdependent global systems and the systemic risk they pose; such problemsescape solutions because they are often ill-defined, and thus mis-identifiedand under-appreciated by communities of problem-solvers. While there arewell-documented benefits to tackling boundary-crossing problems from variousviewpoints, the integration of diverse approaches can nevertheless contributeconfusion around the collective understanding of the core concepts and feasiblesolutions. We explore this paradox by analyzing the development of bothscholarly (social) and topical (cognitive) communities -- two facets ofknowledge production studies here that contribute towards the evolution ofknowledge in and around a problem, termed a knowledge trajectory -- associatedwith three wicked problems: deforestation, invasive species, and wildlifetrade. We posit that saturation in the dynamics of social and cognitivediversity growth is an indicator of reduced uncertainty in the evolution of thecomprehensive knowledge trajectory emerging around each wicked problem.Informed by comprehensive bibliometric data capturing both social and cognitivedimensions of each problem domain, we thereby develop a framework that assessesthe stability of knowledge trajectory dynamics as an indicator of wickednessassociated with conceptual and solution uncertainty. As such, our resultsidentify wildlife trade as a wicked problem that may be difficult to addressgiven recent instability in its knowledge trajectory.

On the social and cognitive dimensions of wicked environmental problems characterized by conceptual and solution uncertainty