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The COVID-19 pandemic is the most significant global crisis since World WarII that affected almost all the countries of our planet. To control theCOVID-19 pandemic outbreak, it is necessary to understand how the virus istransmitted to a susceptible individual and eventually spread in the community.The primary transmission pathway of COVID-19 is human-to-human transmissionthrough infectious droplets. However, a recent study by Greenhalgh et al.(Lancet: 397:1603-1605, 2021) demonstrates 10 scientific reasons behind theairborne transmission of SARS-COV-2. In the present study, we introduce a novelmathematical model of COVID-19 that considers the transmission of free virusesin the air besides the transmission of direct contact with an infected person.The basic reproduction number of the epidemic model is calculated using thenext-generation operator method and observed that it depends on both thetransmission rate of direct contact and free virus contact. The local andglobal stability of disease-free equilibrium (DFE) is well established.Analytically it is found that there is a forward bifurcation between the DFEand an endemic equilibrium using central manifold theory. Next, we used thenonlinear least-squares technique to identify the best-fitted parameter valuesin the model from the observed COVID-19 mortality data of two major districtsof India. Using estimated parameters for Bangalore urban and Chennai, differentcontrol scenarios for mitigation of the disease are investigated. Resultsindicate that when a vaccine crisis is there, the public health authoritiesshould prefer to vaccinate the susceptible people compared to the recoveredpersons who are now healthy. Along with face mask use, treatment ofhospitalized patients and vaccination of susceptibles, immigration should beallowed in a supervised manner so that economy of the overall society remainshealthy.

the european physical journal. special topics

A mechanistic model for airborne and direct human-to-human transmission  of COVID-19: Effect of mitigation strategies and immigration of infectious  persons