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In the past decades human activities caused global Earth system changes,e.g., climate change or biodiversity loss. Simultaneously, these associatedimpacts have increased environmental awareness within societies across theglobe, thereby leading to dynamical feedbacks between the social and naturalEarth system. Contemporary modelling attempts of Earth system dynamics rarelyincorporate such co-evolutions and interactions are mostly studiedunidirectionally through direct or remembered past impacts. Acknowledging thatsocieties have the additional capability for foresight, this work proposes aconceptual feedback model of socio-ecological co-evolution with the specificconstruct of anticipation acting as a mediator between the social and naturalsystem. Our model reproduces results from previous sociological thresholdmodels with bi-stability if one assumes a static environment. Once theenvironment changes in response to societal behaviour the system insteadconverges towards a globally stable, but not necessarily desired, attractor.Ultimately, we show that anticipation of future ecological states then leads tometastability of the system where desired states can persist for a long time.We thereby demonstrate that foresight and anticipation form an importantmechanism which, once its time horizon becomes large enough, fosters socialtipping towards behaviour that can stabilise the environment and preventspotential socio-ecological collapse.

Anticipation-induced social tipping -- Can the environment be stabilised by social dynamics?