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On the basis of frequentist analyses of experimental constraints fromelectroweak precision data, g-2, B physics and cosmological data, weinvestigate the parameters of the constrained MSSM (CMSSM) with universal softsupersymmetry-breaking mass parameters, and a model with common non-universalHiggs masses (NUHM1). We present chi^2 likelihood functions for the masses ofsupersymmetric particles and Higgs bosons, as well as b to s gamma, b to mu muand the spin-independent dark matter scattering cross section. In the CMSSM wefind preferences for sparticle masses that are relatively light. In the NUHM1the best-fit values for many sparticle masses are even slightly smaller, butwith greater uncertainties. The likelihood functions for most sparticle massesare cut off sharply at small masses, in particular by the LEP Higgs massconstraint. Both in the CMSSM and the NUHM1, the coannihilation region isfavoured over the focus-point region at about the 3-sigma level, largely butnot exclusively because of g-2. Many sparticle masses are highly correlated inboth the CMSSM and NUHM1, and most of the regions preferred at the 95% C.L. areaccessible to early LHC running. Some slepton and chargino/neutralino massesshould be in reach at the ILC. The masses of the heavier Higgs bosons should beaccessible at the LHC and the ILC in portions of the preferred regions in the(M_A, tan beta) plane. In the CMSSM, the likelihood function for b to mu mu ispeaked close to the Standard Model value, but much larger values are possiblein the NUHM1. We find that values of the DM cross section > 10^{-10} pb arepreferred in both the CMSSM and the NUHM1. We study the effects of dropping theg-2, b to s gamma, relic density and M_h constraints.

Likelihood Functions for Supersymmetric Observables in Frequentist Analyses of the CMSSM and NUHM1