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We present a simple model of firm rating evolution. We consider two sourcesof defaults: individual dynamics of economic development and Potts-likeinteractions between firms. We show that such a defined model leads to phasetransition, which results in collective defaults. The existence of thecollective phase depends on the mean interaction strength. For smallinteraction strength parameters, there are many independent bankruptcies ofindividual companies. For large parameters, there are giant collective defaultsof firm clusters. In the case when the individual firm dynamics favors dumpingof rating changes, there is an optimal strength of the firm's interactions fromthe systemic risk point of view.

Collective firm bankruptcies and phase transition in rating dynamics