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Can one understand the statistics of wins and losses of baseball teams? Aretheir consecutive-game winning and losing streaks self-reinforcing or can theybe described statistically? We apply the Bradley-Terry model, whichincorporates the heterogeneity of team strengths in a minimalist way, to answerthese questions. Excellent agreement is found between the predictions of theBradley-Terry model and the rank dependence of the average number team wins andlosses in major-league baseball over the past century when the distribution ofteam strengths is taken to be uniformly distributed over a finite range. Usingthis uniform strength distribution, we also find very good agreement betweenmodel predictions and the observed distribution of consecutive-game teamwinning and losing streaks over the last half-century; however, the agreementis less good for the previous half-century. The behavior of the lasthalf-century supports the hypothesis that long streaks are primarilystatistical in origin with little self-reinforcing component. The data furthershow that the past half-century of baseball has been more competitive than thepreceding half-century.

Undestanding Baseball Team Standings and Streaks