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Forecasting failure events is one of the most important problems in fracturemechanics and related sciences. In this paper, we use the Molchan scheme toinvestigate the error diagrams in a fracture model which has the notableadvantage of displaying two completely different regimes according to theheterogeneity of the system. In one regime, a characteristic event is observedwhile for the second regime a power-law spectrum of avalanches is obtainedreminiscent of self-organized criticality. We find that both regimes aredifferent when predicting large avalanches and that, in the second regime,there are non-trivial temporal correlations associated to clustering of largeevents. Finally, we extend the discussion to seismology, where both kinds ofavalanche size distributions can be seen.Comment: 6 pages, 5 eps figures. Final version to appear in Eur. Phys. J.

Error diagrams and temporal correlations in a fracture model with characteristic and power-law distributed avalanches