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A simple two-stage biomass random effects population dynamics model is presented for carrying out fish stock assessments based on survey indices using no commercial catch information. Recruitment and biomass growth are modelled as random effects, reducing the number of model parameters while maintaining model flexibility. No assumptions regarding natural mortality rates are required. The performance of the method was evaluated using simulated data with emphasis on identifying parameter redundancy, which showed that the variance of the biomass growth random effect might only be estimable if large (>0.2). The full and two nested models were fitted to European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) in the Bay of Biscay using two survey series. The best-fitting model had fixed biomass growth and random recruitment following a lognormal distribution.

A two-stage biomass random effects model for stock assessment without catches: What can be estimated using only biomass survey indices?