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This study aims to quantitatively assess the impact of extreme precipitation events under current and future climate scenarios on landslides. Rainfall-triggered landslides are analyzed primarily using extreme precipitation estimates, derived using the so-called stationary assumption (i.e., statistics of extreme events will not vary significantly over a long period of time). However, extreme precipitation patterns have shown to vary substantially due to climate change, leading to unprecedented changes in the statistics of extremes. In this study, a nonstationary approach, applied to climate model simulations, is adopted to project the upper bound of future precipitation extremes. Future precipitation estimates are obtained from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations. Baseline (historical) and projected (future) precipitation extremes are obtained for a study area near Seattle, Washington. The precipitation patterns are integrated into a series of fully coupled two-dimensional...

Rainfall-triggered slope instabilities under a changing climate: comparative study using historical and projected precipitation extremes