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Recently developed antiviral strategies based upon RNA interference (RNAi), which harnesses an innate cellular system for the targeted down-regulation of gene expression, appear highly promising and offer alternative approaches to conventional highly active antiretroviral therapy or efforts to develop an AIDS vaccine. However, RNAi is faced with several challenges that must be overcome to fully realize its promise. Specifically, it degrades target RNA in a highly sequence-specific manner and is thus susceptible to viral mutational escape, and there are also challenges in delivery systems to induce RNAi. To aid in the development of anti-human immunodeficiency virus (anti-HIV) RNAi therapies, we have developed a novel stochastic computational model that simulates in molecular-level detail the propagation of an HIV infection in cells expressing RNAi. The model provides quantitative predictions on how targeting multiple locations in the HIV genome, while keeping the overall RNAi strength constant, significantly improves efficacy. Furthermore, it demonstrates that delivery systems must be highly efficient to preclude leaving reservoirs of unprotected cells where the virus can propagate, mutate, and eventually overwhelm the entire system. It also predicts how therapeutic success depends upon a relationship between RNAi strength and delivery efficiency and uniformity. Finally, targeting an essential viral element, in this case the HIV TAR region, can be highly successful if the RNAi target sequence is correctly selected. In addition to providing specific predictions for how to optimize a clinical therapy, this system may also serve as a future tool for investigating more fundamental questions of viral evolution.

Computational Design of Antiviral RNA Interference Strategies That Resist Human Immunodeficiency Virus Escape