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This work aims to understand how effective the typical admissions criteriaused in physics are at identifying students who will complete the PhD. Througha multivariate statistical analysis of a sample that includes roughly one ineight students who entered physics PhD programs from 2000-2010, we find thatthe traditional admissions metrics of undergraduate GPA and the GraduateRecords Examination (GRE) Quantitative, Verbal, and Physics Subject Tests donot predict completion in US physics graduate programs with the efficacy oftenassumed by admissions committees. We find only undergraduate GPA to have astatistically significant association with physics PhD completion across allmodels studied. In no model did GRE Physics or GRE Verbal predict PhDcompletion. GRE Quantitative scores had statistically significant relationshipswith PhD completion in two of four models studied. However, in practice,probability of completing the PhD changed by less than 10 percentage points forstudents scoring in the 10 ^th vs 90 ^th percentile of US test takers that werephysics majors. Noting the significant race, gender, and citizenship gaps inGRE scores, these findings indicate that the heavy reliance on these testscores within typical PhD admissions process is a deterrent to increasingaccess, diversity, and equity in physics. Misuse of GRE scores selects againstalready-underrepresented groups and US citizens with tools that fail tomeaningfully predict PhD completion. This is a draft; see the journal for thepublished version.  Additionally included in blue text are several responses to queries aboutthis work.

science advances

Typical Physics PhD Admissions Criteria Limit Access to Underrepresented  Groups but Fail to Predict Doctoral Completion, including some additional  information