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Several acoustic experiments show a surprising degree of stability in wave fronts propagating over multi-megameter ranges through the ocean's sound channel despite the presence of random-like, sound-speed fluctuations. Previous works have pointed out the existence of chaos in simplified ray models incorporating structure inspired by the true ocean environment. A "predictability horizon" has been introduced beyond which stable wavefronts cease to exist and point-wise, detailed comparisons between even the most sophisticated models and experiment may be limited for fundamental reasons. By applying one of the simplified models it is found that, for finite ranges, the fluctuations of the ray stabilities are very broad and consistent with log-normal densities. A fraction of the ray density retains a much more stable character than the typical ray. This may be one of several possible mechanisms leading to greater than anticipated sound-field stability. The log-normal ray stability density may underlie the recent, experimentally determined, log-normal density of wave-field intensities [Colosi et al., J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 105, 3202-3218 (1999)].

On the stability of long-range sound propagation through a structured ocean