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When we discuss the business cycle in ocean shipping, the indicators we most commonly employ are the Index of Tramp Shipping Freights, and Index of Tramp Time Charter Rates or Index of Tanker Freight Rates, which are published monthly by the Chamber of Shipping of the United Kingdom or the Norwegian Shipping News. But people usually use these indices without sufficient knowledge about the nature of these economic indicators, namely as to what sort of movement these freight indices inherently trace. More concretely, no sufficient analysis has ever been made as to what extent these indices follow seasonal fluctuations, or whether there is any trend in the movement of these indices, or how are the period and amplitude of cycle, or whether it is susceptible to irregular factors etc. ; nor has hardly any study been made of the interrelation among these various freight indices, except the analysis of Lewis2), which treated the interrelation between voyage charter rates and time charter rates.

A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF POST-WAR FLUCTUATIONS IN SHIPPING FREIGHTS