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The EU-H2020 project ARCH aims to develop and adapt tools and methods for assessing and improving the resilience of historic areas to climate-related and other natural hazards [1]. One of these tools is CIPCast, a scenario simulation and decision support system for the analysis and forecast of risks and vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure components and their interdependencies. In this paper, we describe the basic functionalities of CIPCast, as far as the application to seismic risk assessment is concerned and we provide an overview of the models behind it. Furthermore, a brief discussion on how we plan to extend CIPCast to model and simulate potential risks and impacts induced by climate change to historic areas, and how this is intended to support resilience assessment strategies, is provided in the conclusions. Introduction Historic towns, old urban quarters, villages and hamlets, as well as historic landscapes make up a significant part of Europe: Natural heritage sites cover roughly 18% of the European land territory [2] and on average 22% of the European housing stock was constructed before 1946 [3]. These historic areas are deeply embedded in larger urban and rural environments (in which 72% of the European population live [4]), serving a role in preserving local identity and personality as well as local knowledge, while relying on interdependent infrastructure services to keep functioning. Historic areas are a major component of quality of life and play an important role in society and community well-being [5], as well as providing important environmental and economic functions. Although climate change has become one of the most significant and fastest growing threats to people and their cultural heritage [6] the impacts of climate-related and other natural hazards on historic areas have not been studied extensively enough [7], and disaster risk reduction seldomly registers as a priority area for management of World Heritage property [8]. Therefore, there is a need for specific methods and tools for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction that take the unique physical, environmental, economic, social, cultural, and governance aspects of historic areas, as well as the enabling conditions they provide for taking action into account. The EU Horizon 2020 research project ARCH (Advancing resilience of historic areas against climate-related and other hazards) [1] aims to take a step in this direction by providing a suite of tools for assessing and improving the resilience of historic areas, combined within a unified disaster risk management framework. One of the tools developed within the project is an extension of the scenario simulation and decision support system CIPCast [9] in order to enable the assessment of impacts and risks to historic areas induced by climate change and natural hazards. This is an essential input for assessing the resilience of historic areas and identifying suitable resilience building strategies. This paper gives an overview on how CIPCast functions and describes the extensions necessary to maximize its utility in the project context. The first section (sec. 1) gives a brief introduction to the ARCH project, followed by a general overview of the basic functionalities of CIPCast (sec. 2) and how these can already be employed to assess damage and impacts induced by seismic hazards (sec. 3). Following these explanations, the planned extensions of CIPCast (sec. 4), and how its results supports reARGESIM Report 59 (ISBN 978-3-901608-93-3), p 453-460, DOI: 10.11128/arep.59.a59063

Applying Simulation to Advance Resilience of Historic Areas to Climate Change and Natural Hazards