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The COVID-19 pandemic, worldwide up to December 2020, caused over 1.7 million deaths, and put the world&#x0027;s most advanced healthcare systems under heavy stress. In many countries, drastic restrictive measures adopted by political authorities, such as national lockdowns, have not prevented the outbreak of the new pandemic&#x0027;s waves. In this article, we propose an integrated detection-estimation-forecasting framework that, using publicly available data, is designed to: learn relevant features of the pandemic (e.g., the infection rate); detect as quickly as possible the onset (or the termination) of an exponential growth of the contagion; and reliably forecast the pandemic evolution. The proposed solution is validated by analyzing the COVID-19 second and third waves in the United States.

Quickest Detection and Forecast of Pandemic Outbreaks: Analysis of COVID-19 Waves