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Approaching efficiency limits for silicon photovoltaics and impressive efficiency gains for new perovskite and perovskite silicon tandem solar cells trigger the question, which technology will be the most economically attractive option in the future. With a bottom-up approach we estimate the manufacturing costs of modules based on silicon, perovskite single junction, and perovskite silicon tandem solar cells. We determine levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) based on current costs, and because the perovskite technology is not readily available yet, project as well future LCOE considering the ongoing dynamic system cost reductions. Furthermore, we use an empirical link between perovskite single junction efficiency and resulting tandem efficiency, to estimate LCOE for both technologies for a given status of the perovskite technology. We find that if the perovskite technology matures to a level within the next 5-6 years where single junction module efficiency exceed 22% and tandem device efficiency 30% using low-cost industrial scale processes, while module lifetimes are comparable to silicon, perovskite silicon tandem devices are especially promising for residential applications, while in utility installations perovskite silicon tandems and perovskite singlejunction devices promise a cost advantage over pure silicon. LCOE reductions of 10%-20% compared to pure silicon photovoltaics are possible.

The Race for Lowest Costs of Electricity Production: Techno-Economic Analysis of Silicon, Perovskite and Tandem Solar Cells