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Effectiveness evaluation of LEO satellite communication system can not only guide the optimization of constellation program,but also play an important role in the stage of system design. In order to ensure the accuracy of the evaluation results, it is necessary to consider the impact of uncertain information on effectiveness evaluation, whether it is due to poor information or complex system.In order to solve this problem, this paper introduces birth and death process into satellite communication system.Firstly, according to the limit distribution of grey birth and death process with continuous time and limited state, we establish the availability model of the system.Then, the Kolmogorov forward equation is used to characterize the dependability of the system during operation.After that, a capability evaluation index system based on “four domains” is constructed. The attribute values of the index are unified into generalized standard interval grey numbers, and the weight allocation model of GSIGN-AHP-ME is established.The system capability is calculated according to the full probability formula.Subsequently,taking constellation X as an example, the system effectiveness is obtained by using the G-BDP-ADC model constructed in this paper.Finally, by comparing with the fuzzy evaluation method, it shows that the G-BDP-ADC model constructed in this paper is better than the fuzzy evaluation method, and can describe the LEO satellite communication system in the context of poor information more appropriately.

G-BDP-ADC Model for Effectiveness Evaluation of Low Orbit Satellite Communication System in the Context of Poor Information