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The development of technologies in generation-grid-load-energy storage has created enormous uncertainties for power system and thus brings great challenges to medium-and long-term operation simulation. In order to describe uncertainties in medium-and long-term operation process and analyze operation condition objectively, this paper firstly builds multi-state probabilistic models of generation-grid-load-energy storage based on multi-state analysis method, and adopt Markov method to consider state dependency of some components. And then using these models, an operation simulation method based on the improved universal generating function is proposed in which the minimum distance classification method is adopted to improve computational efficiency and avoid state explosion problem. At last the validation and engineering practicality of the proposed method are demonstrated in IEEE RTS-79 and Zhangjiakou power system respectively, and the suitable areas of different operation simulation method are also discussed.

Research on Medium- and Long-Term Operation Simulation Method Based on Improved Universal Generating Function