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When an infectious disease strikes a population, the number of newly reportedcases is often the only available information that one can obtain during earlystages of the outbreak. An important goal of early outbreak analysis is toobtain a reliable estimate for the basic reproduction number, $R_{0}$, from thelimited information available. We present a novel method that enables us tomake a reliable real-time estimate of the reproduction number at a much earlierstage compared to other available methods. Our method takes into account thepossibility that a disease has a wide distribution of infectious period andthat the degree distribution of the contact network is heterogeneous. Wevalidate our analytical framework with numerical simulations.

Early Real-time Estimation of Infectious Disease Reproduction Number