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The influence of random perturbations of high intensity accelerator elements on the beam losses is considered. This paper presents the error sensitivity study which has been performed for the SPIRAL2 linac in order to define the tolerances for the construction. The proposed driver aims to accelerate a 5 mA deuteron beam up to 20   A MeV and a 1 mA ion beam for q/A=1/3 up to 14.5 A MeV. It is a continuous wave regime linac, designed for a maximum efficiency in the transmission of intense beams and a tunable energy. It consists in an injector (two   ECRs   sources+LEBTs with the possibility to inject from several sources+radio frequency quadrupole) followed by a superconducting section based on an array of independently phased cavities where the transverse focalization is performed with warm quadrupoles. The correction scheme and the expected losses are described. The extreme value theory is used to estimate the expected beam losses. The described method couples large scale computations to obtain probability distribution functions. The bootstrap technique is used to provide confidence intervals associated to the beam loss predictions. With such a method, it is possible to measure the risk to loose a few watts in this high power linac (up to 200 kW)

Application of the extreme value theory to beam loss estimates in the SPIRAL2 linac based on large scale Monte Carlo computations