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An analysis of 1,955 physics graduate students from 19 PhD programs showsthat undergraduate grade point average predicts graduate grades and PhDcompletion more effectively than GRE scores. Students' undergraduate GPA (UGPA)and GRE Physics (GRE-P) scores are small but statistically significantpredictors of graduate course grades, while GRE quantitative and GRE verbalscores are not. We also find that males and females score equally well in theirgraduate coursework despite a statistically significant 18 percentile point gapin median GRE-P scores between genders. A counterfactual mediation analysisdemonstrates that among admission metrics tested only UGPA is a significantpredictor of overall PhD completion, and that UGPA predicts PhD completionindirectly through graduate grades. Thus UGPA measures traits linked tograduate course grades, which in turn predict graduate completion. AlthoughGRE-P scores are not significantly associated with PhD completion, our resultssuggest that any predictive effect they may have are also linked indirectlythrough graduate GPA. Overall our results indicate that among commonly usedquantitative admissions metrics, UGPA offers the most insight into twoimportant measures of graduate school success, while posing fewer concerns forequitable admissions practices.

Analyzing admissions metrics as predictors of graduate GPA and whether graduate GPA mediates PhD completion