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The variation in the radiative output of the Sun, described in terms of solarirradiance, is important to climatology. A common assumption is that solarirradiance variability is driven by its surface magnetism. Verifying thisassumption has, however, been hampered by the fact that models of solarirradiance variability based on solar surface magnetism have to be calibratedto observed variability. Making use of realistic three-dimensionalmagnetohydrodynamic simulations of the solar atmosphere and state-of-the-artsolar magnetograms from the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we present a model oftotal solar irradiance (TSI) that does not require any such calibration. Indoing so, the modeled irradiance variability is entirely independent of theobservational record. (The absolute level is calibrated to the TSI record fromthe Total Irradiance Monitor.) The model replicates 95% of the observedvariability between April 2010 and July 2016, leaving little scope foralternative drivers of solar irradiance variability at least over the timescales examined (days to years).

Solar Irradiance Variability is Caused by the Magnetic Activity on the Solar Surface