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We propose a collective opinion formation model with a so-called confirmationbias. The confirmation bias is a psychological effect with which, in thecontext of opinion formation, an individual in favor of an opinion is prone tomisperceive new incoming information as supporting the current belief of theindividual. Our model modifies a Bayesian decision-making model for singleindividuals [M. Rabin and J. L. Schrag, Q. J. Econ. 114, 37 (1999)] for thecase of a well-mixed population of interacting individuals in the absence ofthe external input. We numerically simulate the model to show that all theagents eventually agree on one of the two opinions only when the confirmationbias is weak. Otherwise, the stochastic population dynamics ends up creating adisagreement configuration (also called polarization), particularly for largesystem sizes. A strong confirmation bias allows various final disagreementconfigurations with different fractions of the individuals in favor of theopposite opinions.

A collective opinion formation model under Bayesian updating and confirmation bias