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In a well-stirred system undergoing chemical reactions, fluctuations in thereaction propensities are approximately captured by the corresponding chemicalLangevin equation. Within this context, we discuss in this work how the Kramersescape theory can be used to predict rare events in chemical reactions. As anexample, we apply our approach to a recently proposed model on cellproliferation with relevance to skin cancer [P.B. Warren, Phys. Rev. E {\bf80}, 030903 (2009)]. In particular, we provide an analytical explanation forthe form of the exponential exponent observed in the onset rate of uncontrolledcell proliferation.

Predicting rare events in chemical reactions: application to skin cell proliferation