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We present an extensive study of the foreshock and aftershock signaturesaccompanying peaks of book sales. The time series of book sales are derivedfrom the ranking system of Amazon.com. We present two independent ways ofclassifying peaks, one based on the acceleration pattern of sales and the otherbased on the exponent of the relaxation. They are found to be consistent andreveal the co-existence of two types of sales peaks: exogenous peaks occurabruptly and are followed by a power law relaxation, while endogenous salepeaks occur after a progressively accelerating power law growth followed by anapproximately symmetrical power law relaxation which is slower than forexogenous peaks. We develop a simple epidemic model of buyers connected withina network of acquaintances which propagates rumors and opinions on books. Thecomparison between the predictions of the model and the empirical data confirmsthe validity of the model and suggests in addition that social networks haveevolved to converge very close to criticality (here in the sense of criticalbranching processes of opinion spreading). We test in details the evidence fora power law distribution of book sales and confirm a previous indirect studysuggesting that the fraction of books (density distribution) $P(S)$ of sales Sis a power law P(S) ~ 1/S^{1+mu} with mu close to 2. A short version of thiswork appeared in Sornette, D. et al., Phys. Rev. Letts. 93 (22), 228701 (2004).Comment: 44 pages with 15 figure

Dynamics of book sales: Endogenous versus exogenous shocks in complex networks