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In this paper, we analyze the temporal evolution of the age-dependent forceof infection and incidence of rubella, after the introduction of a veryspecific vaccination programme in a previously nonvaccinated population whererubella was in endemic steady state. We deduce an integral equation for theage-dependent force of infection, which depends on a number of parameters thatcan be estimated from the force of infection in steady state prior to thevaccination program. We present the results of our simulations, which arecompared with observed data. We also examine the influence of contact patternsamong members of a community on the age-dependent intensity of transmission ofrubella and on the results of vaccination strategies. As an example of thetheory proposed, we calculate the effects of vaccination strategies for fourcommunities from Caieiras (Brazil), Huixquilucan (Mexico), Finland and theUnited Kingdom. The results for each community differ considerably according tothe distinct intensity and pattern of transmission in the absence ofvaccination. We conclude that this simple vaccination program is not veryefficient (very slow) in the goal of eradicating the disease. This givessupport to a mixed strategy, proposed by Massad et al., accepted andimplemented by the government of the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil.

physical review. e, statistical physics, plasmas, fluids, and related interdisciplinary topics

Vaccination against rubella: Analysis of the temporal evolution of the  age-dependent force of infection and the effects of different contact  patterns