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Earth's climate can be understood as a dynamical system that changes due toexternal forcing and internal couplings. Essential climate variables, such assurface air temperature, describe this dynamics. Our current interglacial, theHolocene (11,700 yr ago to today), has been characterized by small variationsin global mean temperature prior to anthropogenic warming. However, themechanisms and spatiotemporal patterns of fluctuations around this mean, calledtemperature variability, are poorly understood despite their socio-economicrelevance. Here, we examine discrepancies between temperature variability frommodel simulations and paleoclimate reconstructions by categorizing the scalingbehavior of local and global surface air temperature on the timescale of yearsto centuries. To this end, we contrast power spectral densities (PSD) and theirpower-law scaling using simulated and observation-based temperature series ofthe last 6000 yr. We further introduce the spectral gain to disentangle theexternally forced and internally generated variability as a function oftimescale. It is based on our estimate of the joint PSD of radiative forcing,which exhibits a scale break around the period of 7 yr. We find that localtemperature series from paleoclimate reconstructions show a different scalingbehavior than simulated ones, with a tendency towards stronger persistence(i.e., correlation between successive values within a time series) on periodsof 10 to 200 yr. Conversely, the PSD and spectral gain of global meantemperature are consistent across data sets. Our results point to thelimitation of climate models to fully represent local temperature statisticsover decades to centuries. By highlighting the key characteristics oftemperature variability, we pave a way to better constrain possible changes intemperature variability with global warming and assess future climate risks.

physical review. e

Probing the timescale dependency of local and global variations in  surface air temperature from climate simulations and reconstructions of the  last millennia