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The IceCube Collaboration has recently reported the observation of a flux ofhigh-energy astrophysical neutrinos. The angular distribution of events isconsistent with an isotropic arrival direction of neutrinos which is expectedfor an extragalactic origin. We estimate the prospects of detecting individualneutrino sources from a quasi-diffuse superposition of many extragalacticsources at the level of the IceCube observation. Our analysis takes intoaccount ensemble variations of the source distribution as well as the eventstatistics of individual sources. We show that IceCube in its presentconfiguration is sensitive to rare < 10^-8 Mpc^-3 yr^-1 transient sourceclasses within 5 years of operation via the observation of multiplets.Identification of time-independent sources is more challenging due to largerbackgrounds. We estimate that during the same period IceCube is sensitive tosparse sources with densities of < 10^-6 Mpc^-3 via association of events withthe closest 100 sources of an ensemble. We show that a next-generation neutrinoobservatory with 5 times the effective area of IceCube and otherwise similardetector performance would increase the sensitivity to source densities andrates by about two orders of magnitude.

Pinpointing Extragalactic Neutrino Sources in Light of Recent IceCube Observations