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Cold dark matter subhalos are expected to populate galaxies in numbers. Ifdark matter self-annihilates, these objects turn into prime targets forindirect searches, in particular with gamma-ray telescopes. Incidentally, theFermi-LAT catalog already contains many unidentified sources that might beassociated with subhalos. In this paper, we determine the probability forsubhalos to be identified as gamma-ray pointlike sources from their predicteddistribution properties. We use a semi-analytical model for the Galacticsubhalo population, which, in contrast to cosmological simulations, can be madefully consistent with current kinematic constraints in the Milky Way and has noresolution limit. The model incorporates tidal stripping effects from arealistic distribution of baryons in the Milky Way. The same baryonicdistribution contributes a diffuse gamma-ray foreground which adds up to that,often neglected in subhalo searches, generated by the smooth dark matter andthe unresolved subhalos. This configuration implies a correlation betweenpointlike subhalo signals and diffuse background. Based on this semi-analyticalmodeling, we generate mock gamma-ray data assuming an idealized telescoperesembling Fermi-LAT and perform a likelihood analysis to estimate the currentand future sensitivity to subhalos in the relevant parameter space. We find anumber of detectable subhalos of order ${\cal O}(<1)$ for optimistic modelparameters and a WIMP mass of 100~GeV, maximized for a cored host halo. Thisbarely provides support to the current interpretation of several Fermiunidentified sources as subhalos. We also find it more likely to detect thesmooth Galactic halo itself before subhalos, should dark matter in the GeV-TeVmass range self-annihilate through $s$-wave processes.

Statistics for dark matter subhalo searches in gamma rays from a kinematically constrained population model: Fermi-LAT-like telescopes