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We present the first end-to-end nonperturbative analysis of the gravitationalwave power spectrum from a thermal first-order electroweak phase transition(EWPT), using the framework of dimensionally reduced effective field theory andpre-existing nonperturbative simulation results. We are able to show that afirst-order EWPT in any beyond the Standard Model (BSM) scenario that can bedescribed by a Standard Model-like effective theory at long distances willproduce gravitational wave signatures too weak to be observed at existing andplanned detectors. This implies that colliders are likely to provide the bestchance of exploring the phase structure of such theories, while transitionsstrong enough to be detected at gravitational wave experiments require eitherpreviously neglected higher-dimension operators or light BSM fields to beincluded in the dimensionally reduced effective theory and thereforenecessitate dedicated nonperturbative studies. As a concrete application, weanalyze the real singlet-extended Standard Model and identify regions ofparameter space with single-step first-order transitions, comparing ourfindings to those obtained using a fully perturbative method. We discuss theprospects for exploring the electroweak phase diagram in this model at colliderand gravitational wave experiments in light of our nonperturbative results.

Nonperturbative analysis of the gravitational waves from a first-order electroweak phase transition