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This paper quantifies the eco-hydrological challenge up until 2050 of producing food in balance with goods and services generated by water-dependent ecosystems in nature. Particular focus is given to the savannah zone, covering 40% of the land area in the world, where water scarcity constitutes a serious constraint to sustainable development. The analysis indicates an urgent need for a new green revolution, which focuses on upgrading rain-fed agriculture. Water requirements to produce adequate diets for humans are shown to be relatively generic irrespective of hydro-climate, amounting to a global average of 1,300 m(3) cap(-1) yr(-1). Present food production requires an estimated 6,800 km(3) yr(-1) of consumptive green water (5,000 km(3) yr(-1) in rain-fed agriculture and 1,800 km(3) yr(-1) from irrigated crops). Without considering water productivity gains, an additional 5,800 km(3) yr(-1) of water is needed to feed a growing population in 2,050 and eradicate malnutrition. It is shown that the bulk of this water will be used in rain-fed agriculture. A dynamic analysis of water productivity and management options indicates that large 'crop per drop' improvements can be achieved at the farm level. Vapour shift in favour of productive green water flow as crop transpiration could result in relative water savings of 500 km(3) yr(-1) in semi-arid rain-fed agriculture.

Water for food and nature in drought–prone tropics: vapour shift in rain–fed agriculture