English (United Kingdom)

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/featured_content/oa?rat=en

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/highlighted_journal/

Global: Zendy Plus annual

Presents the access of premium content as premium feature

Premium Content

Presents the keyphrase highlighting as premium feature

Keyphrase Highlighting

Presents the summarisation as premium feature

Summarisation

Insights

Presents the pdf analysis as premium feature

PDF Analysis

Presents the zaia usage as premium feature

ZAIA

Global: Zendy Tools annual

Global: Zendy Free Plan

Global: Zendy Tools monthly

Global: Zendy Plus monthly

Approaching a dangerous bifurcation, from which a dynamical system such asthe Earth's climate will jump (tip) to a different state, the current stablestate lies within a shrinking basin of attraction. Persistence of the statebecomes increasingly precarious in the presence of noisy disturbances. Weconsider an underlying potential, as defined theoretically for a saddle-nodefold and (via averaging) for a Hopf bifurcation. Close to a stable state, thispotential has a parabolic form; but approaching a jump it becomes increasinglydominated by softening nonlinearities. If we have already detected a decreasein the linear decay rate, nonlinear information allows us to estimate thepropensity for early tipping due to noise. We argue that one needs to extractinformation about the nonlinear features (a "softening") of the underlyingpotential from the time series to judge the probability and timing of tipping.This analysis is the logical next step if one has detected a decrease of thelinear decay rate. If there is no discernable trend in the linear analysis,nonlinear softening is even more important in showing the proximity to tipping.After extensive normal form calibration studies, we check two geological timeseries from paleo-climate tipping events for softening of the underlying well.For the ending of the last ice age, where we find no convincing linearprecursor, we identify a statistically significant nonlinear softening towardsincreasing temperature. The analysis has thus successfully detected a warningof the imminent tipping event.

philosophical transactions - royal society. mathematical, physical and engineering sciences/philosophical transactions - royal society. mathematical, physical and engineering sciences

Nonlinear softening as a predictive precursor to climate tipping