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We study the mitigation of climate tipping point transitions using an energybalance model. The evolution of the global mean surface temperature is coupledwith the CO2 concentration through the green house effect. We model the CO2concentration with a stochastic delay differential equation (SDDE), accountingfor various carbon emission and capture scenarios. The resulting coupled systemof SDDEs exhibits a tipping point phenomena: if CO2 concentration exceeds acritical threshold (around 478ppm), the temperature experiences an abruptincrease of about six degrees Celsius. We show that the CO2 concentrationexhibits a transient growth which may cause a climate tipping point, even ifthe concentration decays asymptotically. We derive a rigorous upper bound forthe CO2 evolution which quantifies its transient and asymptotic growths, andprovides sufficient conditions for evading the climate tipping point. Combiningthis upper bound with Monte Carlo simulations of the stochastic climate model,we investigate the emission reduction and carbon capture scenarios that wouldavert the tipping point.

Investigating climate tipping points under various emission reduction and carbon capture scenarios with a stochastic climate model