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Methods: Cadaveric heartbeating donor kidney only transplants in adult patients in the UK between 1983 and 1987 were analysed. Transplants failing in the first year were excluded. For 75% of the remaining cohort, both 3 and 12-month serum creatinine measures were recorded on the UK’s national transplant database. Transplant survival analysis (death with function counted as a failure) considered the influence on ten-year outcome of 3 and 12-month serum creatinine; the change between 3 and 12 month serum creatinine (∆ creatinine) and other potential risk factors recorded. Data were available for 2766 transplants with 97% 10-year follow-up including 17% regrafts, which were analysed separately.

CAN SERUM CREATININE IN THE FIRST YEAR AFTER TRANSPLANT PREDICT LONG-TERM RENAL TRANSPLANT OUTCOME?